We all need something to hang on to. Maybe there’s a song about that. If there isn’t, well, there should be. I’ve been noticing the different ideas that different people hold on to recently, and also noticing how they seem to instantly generate a conclusion, and then hold on to that. I’m going to write about that and see where it goes. I’m calling these ideas “fixed points” in this article.

It was the long threads about #noestimates that brought my attention to this notion. A few fixed points that I noticed include:

  • The tag #noestimates means no estimates, none, zero, not any, despite the statement of its creator that it is an invitation to talk about alternatives to estimates.
  • We can’t talk about this until we define what we mean by “estimate”.
  • If someone supports #noestimates, they must be against estimates.
  • Estimates have value, period.
  • Estimates are bad, period.

My point in the thread and article was to demonstrate, logically, that it’s not insanely illogical to question each and every use of estimation. The reasoning was that (unless you’re actually selling estimates) estimates are not your product, and Lean thinking says that everything that doesn’t produce product is “waste” and is therefore subject to reduction or removal if possible.

I guess I was observing that there are a lot of people who object to “no estimates” because they think some estimates are good and therefore “no estimates” can’t possibly be a good name for an idea. I’d hoped to move them off that dime, by helping them understand that while it might not be a good idea to remove every single estimate, it’s not that bad an idea to at least consider it.

Thinking about it now, I don’t believe that one single person changed position. A few people did go so far as to indicate that they understood my notion. Since my main motivation is to be understood, that was good news. But I digress, we’re here to talk about fixed points in our thinking.

We simply do not have the brain power to think about everything. We package up all kinds of habits, macros, ways of looking at things. Our very way of walking is essentially a controlled fall, and we do it unconsciously. If we had to do it consciously, we’d almost certainly fall over.

I’m reminded of the experiment where the controls are reversed on a bicycle, so that you turn the handlebars left to turn the wheel right, and vice versa. It turns out that people who can ride an ordinary bike quite well, fail for a long time at riding the bike with controls reversed. And yet, when we think about it, we know perfectly well what has to be done. It seems that we just can’t do by thinking. (I wonder what would happen if you went right to riding “no hands”. Maybe I’ll get a chance to try it someday. Maybe I’ll break a hip.)

As humans, we’re chock full of simplifying assumptions about the world, ranging from habitual things like walking and bike riding, to assumptions about how people drive (Buick drivers! God save me!), to assumptions about gender, skin color, and yes, people’s attitudes about estimates.